| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 交通運輸研究所 === 92 === Taiwan HSR (high speed rail) system will be operated in 2005, travel time between Taipei City and Kaohsiung City will be shortened to only 90 minutes. Different from the HSR of other countries, Taiwan HSR system includes not only high speed rail itself, but also a large number of station area development projects, most of which are located in remote districts. Therefore, the impact of Taiwan HSR system is created from two sources: “high speed rail” and “station area development projects”. Besides, the impact of Taiwan HSR system can be analyzed by two scales: “regional impact” and “local impact” two parts. This work focuses on the local development impact of Taiwan HSR system.
“Simultaneous equation modeling” is applied for the construction of local development model, which is calibrated by the samples of 323 villages, towns or cities in Taiwan. The calibration data includes population, industry, land use and travel demand. After model has been calibrated, 18 scenarios of Taiwan HSR system are created, and the impacts are analyzed and discussed.
The empirical study reaches the following conclusions: First, the HSR itself will positively influence the development of population and industry in the service areas of HSR stations. Second, the station area development projects create more positive influences on the development of population and industry in the station areas than the HSR itself does. Finally, It’s also found that improving the transportation transfer systems of the HSR stations enhances the positive influences of HSR systems on local development of population and industry.
Key words: High speed rail, Local development, Simultaneous equation modeling
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