A Study of Demand Planning Models in Wafer Foundry

• Main Authors: Hui-Lan, Hsu, 許惠蘭
• Other Authors: Chi, Chiang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2004
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/05055972159175017468

碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 管理學院碩士在職專班管理科學組 === 92 === With the help of advanced technology, many advanced Supply Chain Planning tools are now available for supply chain management. Demand planning is the very first task for the planning of the entire supply chain network. Sound and realistic forecasting is the key to good planning in any industry. Forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient demand planning. Unfortunately, the uncertain demand information propagated through the supply chain network often plagues planning quality. Through strategically demand aggregation and desegregation, demand variation can reduced dramatically. Because foundry is a capital extensive business and capacity expansion is the major capital expense. Hence, it becomes imperative to allocate the resources more efficiently in this industry. Unplanned demand oscillations, including those caused by stock outs, in the supply chain execution process, create distortions that can wreak havoc up and down the supply chain. In this research, a new demand forecasting model has been developed to analyze button-up and top-down demand forecast. Product life cycle disaggregating rules, order/demand forecast disaggregating rules, capacity constraint rules and fair share rules are the key strategies that developed by this research to analyze demand forecast. The practical data in a wafer foundry has been used to proof the performance of this research. In this research, Mean Absolute Percentage Error and Theil Inequality Coefficient are used as evaluation methods to measure the performance between the original and new forecasting models. Through measuring the deviation of the forecasts in Company A, a wafer foundry, the new forecasting model is proofed to be better than the original one. The results obtained in this research may not represent all the companies in Foundry industry and still has some constraints inside. But the result of this analysis could be an important input for top management to monitor company’s demand planning performance and account manager’s forecasting accuracy.