| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 營建工程所 === 92 === A major decision the owner of a construction project has to make during the planning phase is selection of a procurement method. Since each construction project has unique characteristics, there should a most suitable procurement method. In addition to the traditional design-bid-build method, alternatives routes such as the design and build method and the management contracting method can be used. This research investigates the evaluation of alternative procurement methods for projects with high schedule risk. A project may involve high schedule risk because of urgent operation needs of the owner demanding unusually short project duration or the nature of involved construction items having great variance in task durations. The risk may also come from uncertainties in a complex project’s design. The traditional method and the alternative methods each have different strengths and weaknesses. Selection of a method must take into account the nature of a method against the nature of the project and the priorities in the owner’s project objectives, and the best option can only be found after a trade-off analysis. Existing selection approaches reported in the literature do not provide an evaluation model based on quantitative risk analysis. For high schedule risk projects, this evaluation problem is essentially decision analysis under uncertainty, and at the center is the assessment of trade-offs between various criteria such as time and cost.
This research develops a decision model that is based on a quantitative analytical approach for evaluating procurement methods. It is proposed to produce the time and cost estimates for a project through each procurement route in the form of probability distributions using Monte-Carlo simulation. The probabilistic estimates are converted into utility scores through utility functions. A fuzzy logic system is used to evaluate the methods on the quality factor that includes design flexibility and management organization. The utility scores for time, cost, and quality are then combined to produce a total score for each option, with the criteria’s relative importance weights determined by using the analytical hierarchy process. The results represent the overall evaluation for the procurement methods, which can be used as a basis for selection. A case study is presented to illustrate the proposed model for evaluation of procurement methods.
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