Total Factor Productivity and Economic Growth in Taiwan

• Main Author: 張雅棻
• Other Authors: 官德星
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2004
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/51049342027444725377

碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 經濟學系 === 92 === RBC economists like Kydland and Prescott、Long and Plosser had successfully applied growth model to simulate the business cycle phenomenon after the Korean War in America. In this paper, what we are interested in is that whether neoclassical growth model can be applied to explain Taiwan’s economic growth？ How to explain？ Economic growth in Taiwan is so fast, and the growth resources are also numerous，but the most important one must be the great improvement in total factor productivity. Accordingly, we want to explore the role TFP plays in the path of Taiwan’s economic growth, from the viewpoint of growth, we apply dynamic general equilibrium theory to account for Taiwan’s economic growth. In this paper, we apply Hayashi and Prescott’s（2002）model to discuss the growth resources, we also calibrate the model in order to have it simulated the real world. We first assume that TFP is AR(1), the stochastic technology shock gets into the cadre of general equilibrium theory and result in equilibrium solutions. Finally, our result of simulation seems not to be matched with the actual data very well, the reasons may be related to the assumptions of capital、utility function、disutility function of work, or the approximation methods and the degree of accuracy. Furthermore, we apply Hayashi and Prescott’s method which is what we call ”deterministic simulation” to explore the case after the workweek length reduces. We find that when TFP is deterministic, our model can precisely describe the real world, and we also predict that output per capita、consumption per capita、capital-output ratio will growth slightly during 2003-2008. In this paper, we also discuss the policies which affect TFP、capital input and labor input and futher have influences on output.