| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 資源管理研究所 === 92 === Abstract
The Evaluation of the emission abatement policy for motorcycles in Taiwan
by
Lin, Yang-Tao
July, 2004
ADVISOR(S): Dr. Chang, Ssu-Li
DEPARTMENT: INSTITUTE OF NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
MAJOR: NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
DEGREE: MASTOR OF ARTS
Due to the fast growth of the motorcycles each year, air pollution has been one of the issues that constantly of concerns by the EPA of Taiwan. There are more than ten million 2 stroke and 4stroke motorcycles in Taiwan. The density of the motorcycles is 275 vehicles per km2. It’s the top of the world (EPA, 2003).
Several strategies are adopted to solve the air pollution problem by EPA of Taiwan. Among them command and control and economical incentive approaches are two that were deemed as the most cost-effective strategies. As motorbikes with traditional carburetors generate heavy emissions which is about three times more than automobiles, the manufacturing of this traditional model had come to a halt for further manufacturing. At the same time incentives were provided for both producers and consumers to encourage the market penetration of new fuel injection engine motorcycles. It is estimated that the CO and hydrocarbons emissions of these fuel injection motorcycles are at least 50% lower than those of motorcycles with carburetor engines and they are at least 18% more fuel efficient than carburetor engine motorcycles. The purpose of this study is to construct an evaluation model to estimate the emission reduction effect for each of the policy instruments under various scenarios. System dynamics was used as both theoretical foundation as well as research method for model construction and empirical studies. This Study evaluated several regulation approaches aiming at achieving the reduction of motorcycles’ emissions. The regulations included are as followed: The Forth emission standard, enhancement of smoke check program, enhancing inspection and maintenance program. Conceptual model were first developed and historical data from 1993 to 2003 for the motorcycles used as well as pollution emitted in Taiwan were collected and simulated. It is followed by the evaluation of the total emission of THC, CO and NOx for each of the policy scenarios from 1993 to 2014.
Keywords: Mobile emission, Control measures, System dynamic, Emission cost, Emission factor
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