| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 資源管理研究所 === 92 === Presently, Taiwan relies mainly on fossil fuel for electricity generation. The burning of fossil fuel emits carbon dioxide. However, low-carbon nature of big hydropower generators and nuclear power generators were difficult to development and detrimental to the environment. Therefore, the use of renewable energy is advocated actively.
Since 1998, the government promoted target of renewable energy in terms of installed capacity and provided subsidies in order to encourage the use of renewable energy. Therefore, the purpose of this research was to structure system dynamics model of renewable electricity supply planning model, to evaluate the impact on total generation cost（economic benefit）and total CO2 emission（environmental benefit）of renewable energy development in five scenarios. Five scenarios are nuclear power plant phase-out ; nuclear power plant phase-out for environmental quality ; guarantee prices; technical progress of renewable energy ; quota obligation.
The results show as follow：(1) The reduction in total generation cost is significant when base load capacity is expanded in nuclear power plant phase-out scenario and peak load capacity is expanded in guarantee prices scenario.（2）the reduction in total CO2 emission is obvious when base load capacity is expanded in nuclear power plant phase-out for environmental quality scenario. If peak load capacity is expanded, the function of reducing total CO2 emission is not clear. The conclusion of this research is the total CO2 emission is not increased under quota obligation which expanding scenario of renewable electricity in order to reach the quota target.
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