Analysis of Project Cash-Flow Forecasting Using Probability Simulation

• Main Authors: Yu-Wei Liu, 劉玉偉
• Other Authors: Ching-Hwang Wang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2004
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/77040259297935452240

碩士 === 國立臺灣科技大學 === 營建工程系 === 92 === Constructors need to predict the cost, duration and cash flow quickly at the bidding stage. Single estimated value is not favorable for evaluating the financial risk of construction projects. This research analyzed the factors fluctuate the cost, and built a simulation analysis model for cash flow by the method of probability simulation. This model can analyze variational range and probability of the duration, cost and net cash flow for every accounting cycle. Moreover, it can obtain the probability of lacking funds according to the restriction of the project’s funds, and can calculate out its average and necessary revolving fund . The result showed that this model is an effective tool to evaluate financial affairs and helpful to constructors to make the financial plan.