| Summary: | 碩士 === 東吳大學 === 會計學系 === 92 === Enterprise Risk Management － Assessment the Earnings-at-Risk of Taiwain paper Industry
ABSTRACT
The trends toward globalization and increased international trade have led many companies to face greater and more types of risk and uncertainty. Many risk management methods are published. In the article, we apply CorporateMetrics (1999) model to calculate earnings-at-risk and earnings-per-share-at-risk. Risk measurement in the corporate environment is a complex process that involves specifying the risk measures to be computed, providing corporates inputes on exposures and forecasting methodology, and calculating the risk measures from earnings distributions.
The article targeted its appraisement of paper industry is to study the market risk factors affecting .The method this empirical research adopts regression model to implement the forecast and simulation. The empirical result concludes that the absolute earnings-at risk of Cheng Loong Corporation is NT＄354,065.27629、＄338,756.90113、＄335,518.67971、＄359,328.63186, which is seen under 95% of confidence level because the cost of imported pulps affects the price fluctuation of cultural paper and household paper producing the worst condition for a net business profit. The absolute earnings-at risk under 90% of confidence level of Cheng Loong Corporation is NT＄396,419.33084、＄379,604.42728、＄377,239.95300、＄399,079.48238. The relative earnings-at-risk is NT＄476,793.08213、＄596,213.33447、＄609,516.27351、＄606,898.79920 under 95﹪of confidence level as reflected. The relative earnings-at-risk is NT＄434,439.02759、＄555,365.80832、＄567,795.00022、＄567,147.94867 under 90﹪of confidence level as reflected. In consequence of the price of the price risk, the worst conditions for earning-per-share-at-risk expressly below 95﹪of confidence level are ＄0.35982、＄0.34426、＄0.34097、＄0.36517. The worst conditions for earning-per-share-at-risk expressly below 90﹪of confidence level are＄0.40286、＄0.38577、＄0.38337、＄0.40557. Besides, the highest possible loss is approximately NT＄0.48454、＄0.60590、＄0.61942、＄0.61676 for relative earning-per-share-at-risk expressly below 95﹪of confidence level. The highest possible loss is approximately NT＄0.44150、＄0.56439、＄0.57702、＄0.57637 for relative earning-per-share-at-risk expressly below 90﹪of confidence level. Finally, we find the reason why the earnings-at-risk in winter is greater than in summer.
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