| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北科技大學 === 環境規劃與管理研究所 === 93 === The urban water supply system is extremely complex. It’s very important to consider the performance ability and prediction in order to reduce the risk of lifelines broken in earthquake disaster. By progressing of computer technology, the water supply network system develops a convenience physical model to calculate the parameter in the model, but it’s a pity that the model couldn’t make a prediction effectively. Under this background, the study evolves a way of simulation to combine the advantage of calculating the network water-parameter in MikeNet physical model precisely, at the same time put the intensity simulation into physical model. The outcome is the situation of water supply network shown in the earthquake. To the water supply network, the destructiveness degree is presented in how much water supply after earthquake disaster. According to real data institutes the basic environment when simulating at first. The water-parameter calculated by physical model is the parameter without earthquake condition. Then according to the material damaged probability of network in different degrees of earthquake predetermine the expectancy broken numbers of network under certain degree of earthquake in the study area. Finally putting the damaged probability and numbers of damaged points into physical model get the water flow in earthquake.
By random simulation gets the data of water flow expectancy distribution of the key node in any degrees of earthquake. Taking Jhong-sin-sing village for example, it’s almost 90% that the partial probability of water left is over needed in the level five of Richter scale; it’s only 30% in the level six of Richter scale. Comparing to the reference, it only calculates the probability of water passed. The study is to predict the probability of water passed and show the destructiveness degree in the way of water flow distribution. When building water supply system, the decision-maker has known how many budgets are needed.
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