Age, Period and Cohort Effect Analyses of Motor Vehicle Mortality in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Guan-Lin Lai, 賴冠霖
• Other Authors: Hung-Yi Chiou
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2004
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/79037701080967488411

碩士 === 臺北醫學大學 === 傷害防治學研究所 === 92 === Recently in Taiwan, the importance of injury prevention and control has been placed on great emphasis. Different strategies of injury prevention and controls have been implemented including the helmet law and increasing injury prevention research. The purpose of this study is to analyze the trend of motor vehicle (MV) mortality by the method of Age-Period-Cohort model analysis. The national death record was obtained from the Department of Health, and the national census data was acquired from the Ministry of Interior (1972-2001). The trend of the MV mortality was described via means of the graphical method. The age, period, and cohort effect was analyzed respectively using the Log-Linear model modified by Osmond. Stratified analyses were also performed utilizing the period and area stratified. Finally, the results of these analyses used for the interpretation of the relative factor of the MV mortality trend were combined. The results showed that both the adolescents (15-19 years old) and elders (beyond 70 years old) were the highest group at risk for MV mortality. Among the younger age group, the riskiest age group decreased from 25-29 years old and 20-24 years old to 15-19 years old in men and women respectively. The increasing MV mortality risk in female was higher than in male utilizing the stratified period. The motor vehicle mortality was obviously influenced by the period effect and is evident through the significant decrease in the risk of MV mortality in Taiwan during 1997 through 2001 to a level equal to that of 30 years ago. By the stratified area, the MV mortality trend in urban area decreased continuously, but the trend in rural area increased. However after 1997, the trends both decreased. The trends of cohort effect in rural area increased continuously and urban area decreased continuously at elder cohorts. However the trends of cohort effect at young cohort in both rural and urban areas were similar. Our findings suggested that the prevention and control of MV mortality in adolescents must improve, and the medical resource between urban and rural area must progress towards some sort of equilibrium. Education and mass communication is also an important way for people to obtain and understand the concept of injury prevention. There are also many other serious injuries in Taiwan for example suicide and falls. The age, period, and cohort effect in these injuries are still unclear therefore more research about them is needed.