Evaluation Method of Risk Strategies:The Case of Project Delivery Systems

• Main Authors: Ming-Lan Yang, 楊閔嵐
• Other Authors: Tsung-Chieh Tsai
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2004
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/31107666160751772389

碩士 === 國立雲林科技大學 === 營建工程系碩士班 === 92 === The demand of project is changing at a rapid pace, driven over the past ten years by the owner’s desire for lower costs, faster schedules and greater innovation. The projects are operated in complex and dynamic conditions. As a result the options for project delivery systems have multiplied and overlapped, adjusting to the owner’s needs. The process of risk reduction begins at the time point while the owner decides project delivery systems. That will most greatly affect risk relationships and risk reduction on a construction project. Whatever which project delivery systems is chosen, the risk entity difference, the time relationship, the spatial correlation and dynamic should not be ignored. So the effectiveness of risk reduction on project delivery systems will influence risk management leading to success or failure. This research develops a quantitative risk analysis method to evaluate the performance of risk reduction on project delivery systems in construction projects. The study defines project risks from the viewpoints of stakeholders in the early phase of the project. Basically, Fault Tree Analysis is used to assess the probability of risk occurrence and to identify the importance of risk factors contributing to risk occurrence. Stakeholders in the project can decide whether to take such risk or to adopt appropriate system for project delivery in order to proceed the project smoothly. Facilitating dual structure between Fault Tree Analysis and Reliability Analysis, performance comparison of risk reduction among project delivery systems is demonstrated in this research. In the risk analysis method, there are four risk factors to influence the risk strategies, including owner, contractors, activities, and project delivery systems. According the Reliability Graph, this research achieves the flow path of the project delivery systems and evaluates the effectiveness of risk reduction of project of delivery systems. The risk probabilities are compared with the conditions that various systems of project delivery adopted in construction projects. The dual structure of FTA and RGA applied to derive from risk analysis can support the stakeholders to make the decisions in the early phases of the project more precisely.