Credit Comments etc.The Discussion That Is Weakened and Is Inspected Effectively In Advance – Regard Listed , The Taiwan TSE and OTC Stock as The Example Carefully with KMV Model

• Main Authors: CHEN YI-JEN, 陳宜仁
• Other Authors: Dr.Shang-Chi Going
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2005
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/07952721373797916435

碩士 === 輔仁大學 === 金融研究所 === 93 === It is a quite important reference index to investors that credit history is commented etc., but the result of commenting etc. is only one grade classification, namely, the same credit grade, with commented the company, its default risk should be non-unanimous. It is commented company's risk of which it is unable to compare with the grade in detail to only hang on credit and comment etc., A different one is commented etc. The company also has different results of commenting etc. the sample by the person who comment. So, try to utilize KMV default risk of development to weigh the way in this research, utilizing the materials of the financial statement and security market, calculate the interval in breach of the specific company. Issues can distinguish the same Company from its good and bad credit grade. Avoiding credit comment investment target or is to believe customers to award exchanged weakened soon to wait, take precautions against it from seeking for the first time. This research includes being listed, covering to the cupboard company to count 22 kinds of industries, 1116 enterprises, as estimated time from the third season of the 92nd year of the Republic of China to the third season of the 93rd year, it is altogether for one year. To estimate this season DD value of the corporation by three substituting parameter and to predict whether credit commented is downgraded. The conclusions obtained include: 1. The group that the distance in breach is the smaller, the next company commented by the letter and lowered assigning to or lowered etc. in season counts and heals more, according with foreign KMV Company's experience, the distance in breach should lead the ability of predicting . 2. Influencing the letter to comment the company, there are factors lowering etc. No matter with which kind of rate of returns in breach distance standard deviation ask, it is difficult to have result of predicting by factor this only. 3. Although many fail to totally grasp the situation that weakened credit will take place in company's reality, but still it can offer a method with early warning ability.