The Forecasting of the Development of Portable Multimedia Player with Scenario Analysis on Digital Life in 2030

• Main Authors: Valentine Y.J. Huang, 黃怡仁
• Other Authors: Benjamin Yuan
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2005
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/63648071008310269508

碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 管理學院碩士在職專班科技管理組 === 93 === The purpose of this study is to forecast the development of portable multimedia player in 2030 by using Stanford Research Institute Scenario Analysis. This study brainstormed through social life dimensions of living activities, living areas and living time of human being and introduction of digital technology to picture the digital life settings. By means of scenario analysis, the expert panel explored the key decision factors which influence the development of future digital industries and the needs of human life. By means of the Delphi method, this panel evaluated the high uncertainty and high impact of the external driving forces and their origins. The panel concluded that the products/technologies availability, inter-field integrality and distributed popularization are three major factors of uncertain axis themes for the future digital life scenario. Each of factors consists of two dimensions, therefore eight scenarios were found. This study showed that, in the combination of two opposite extremes--optimism and pessimism--the scenario presentation of scenario uncertain themes, it is feasible to forecast the function development of portable multimedia player of digital life in 2030 and analyze the opportunity, threat and operation strategy of the future portable multimedia player products under various scenarios by the market demands and industrial supply on the environmental side.