The Application of Grey Prediction Model to Supply and Demand of Physician Manpower for Phychiatrists, Otolaryngologists and Ophthalmologists in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Hui-lan Huang, 黃惠蘭
• Other Authors: Li-chih Ying
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2005
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/64938281348791698839

碩士 === 南華大學 === 管理科學研究所 === 93 === 　　Recently, because the government educates a large number of physicians, the manpower supply of the physicians is no longer short but the medical specialty is unbalanced. After the implementation of the National Health Insurance (NHI) program and the change of the health care environment, the medical specialty structural unbalance have produced the structural changes, which not only challenge the development of the medical environment but also relate to the health care cost and quality. They are the main problems for the health administration to solve. 　 　　Therefore, the accuracy of the planning and prediction in supply and demand of physician specialty manpower is concerned and becoming the one of the most important topics in researches. 　 　　This study is based on the data of the annual member statistical reports of Taiwan Medical Association and the data of the outpatient service prescription and treatment collected from NHI from 1999 to 2002. Considering the disease types of the medical specialty, we take the Psychiatric, Otolaryngology and Ophthalmology as examples. By applying the GM (1,1) model developed from the Grey Theory and adopting the viewpoints of productivity, we use a predictive model of the physician specialty manpower supply and demand to predict the numbers of the annual supply and demand of Psychiatrists, Otolaryngologists and Ophthalmologists in Taiwan from 2003 to 2007. 　 　　The results of the study are as fellows: 1.In the Psychiatrists aspect: The demand exceeds the supply and the unbalanced situation will be worse year after year from 2003 to 2007 in Taiwan. 2.In the Otolaryngologists aspect: The demand also exceeds the supply but the annual unbalanced percentage is less than 1%. It means that the annual supply and demand of Otolaryngologist has almost balanced. 3.In Ophthalmologists aspect: The supply exceeds the demand from 2003 to 2004 but it will turn into short in supply from 2005 to 2007.