The Elder’s Mortality Model Construction and Prediction in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Wen-ting Huang, 黃雯婷
• Other Authors: Ming-chun Lin
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2005
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/50264932341301230173

碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 風險管理與保險所 === 93 === Social and technological factors such economic development and medicine have improved as time is changing. Therefore, the life expectancy is increasing, and the mortality is decreasing, which result in the senior population is in larger proportion than ever. For instance, the older than 65 years old topped 7% in 1993. Hence, the old human mortality becomes a problem. This research adopts an extension of the log-link models (Terry 2000), and the data is based on mortality of the population in the Taiwan-Fukien area from 1988 to 2004. According to the real value and the estimates value of the mortality, we calculate the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (i.e. MAPE), Root Mean Square Percentage Error (i.e. RMSPE), and Wilcoxon test. Consequently the result shows good capability for forecast and there is no significant difference between the two values. The empirical analysis can be used for estimate the mortality rate for next ten years, then provide some information for the decision makers in advanced to deal with the decreasing mortality rate. For a given investigation period, in the projected mortality tables are produced by applying reduction factors derived from a consideration of past improvements and likely future improvements in the mortality rate.