| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 商學研究所 === 93 === The Cross-Strait relationship is always the most important factor for the Taiwan political situation in the past decade. After DPP became the ruling party of Taiwan, because it’s “Taiwan Independence” statement, the Cross-Strait tensions are getting higher.
This research will base on existing negotiation theory, using the negotiation framework to do the systematic for the Cross-Strait relationship, in order to understand the reason why negotiation became deadlock, and try to analysis how it can reach agreement.
The major reason of Cross-Strait relationship became deadlock, is because CPC(Communist Party of China) insist on it’s “one China Principle”, but DPP denies the “1992 consensus” fundamentally. this big gap of the perception between both side is causing the difficulties to have a Zone of Possible Agreement(ZOPA) existed, the only way to reach the agreement is both side have to reduce their walkaway conditions.
From the Game Theory point of view, Cross-Strait relations is definitely a prisoner’s dilemma if it is a static game, both side will get the worse result because they are all only consider their own interest, and then because the deadlock. But Cross-Strait relations is a dynamic repeat game actually, from each contact cycle, both side will have more understand or will be possible to built consensus, eventually their will create the ZOPA and reach agreement. But in the repeat game, the credibility of the negotiator is very important factor for the negotiation, because whether the negotiator’s behavior can be trust or not , will influence the both side to reach agreement. At this point, President Chen Shui-Bian’s credit is a big question mark, and will seriously influence the negotiation progress.
From the negotiation point of view, Cross-Strait relations can’t have real progress in the short time, Mianland China’s economic is blooming for the past quarter; but for the past years, the economical advantage of Taiwan faded out quickly. For the better future of Taiwan, Both side sign a medium range agreement so call “No Taiwan independence, no military conflict” for the period lasting for 30 to 50 years under US’s intervene, will be a constructive resolution, though the regional economical integration, improve the understanding and build the consensus of each other gradually, eventually the political deadlock issue of Cross-Strait can be solved.
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