| Summary: | 碩士 === 臺中健康暨管理學院 === 經營管理研究所 === 93 === The purpose of this dissertation is to discuss the factors which can affect the occurrences of financial crisis of organization. The importance of anticipating financial crisis can not only let the corporation self-diagnose, but also grant the financial institutes abilities to evaluate the interest rate when they are conducting the loaning process.
The sample of this research is base on the TEJ database from 1999 to 2004. This sample has the complete data of 75 companies including 50 normal companies and 25 companies, which are under financial crisis. The term of "under financial crisis" is defined as " full-delivery, temporary- suspend and stopping-suspension stocks.
First, I conduct the simple t-test. The result of simple t-test we have the evidences to prove the financial ratios are different between normal companies and companies under financial crisis. Then, by using the logistic model, I established two models to anticipate the possibilities of occurrence of financial crisis. Although lowering the cut point can reduce the accuracy of anticipation of normal companies, it can increase the accuracy of anticipation for those companies under financial crisis. At mean time, I found that adding the corporate governance factor into this model does increase the accuracy for the anticipation. In the combined financial index model and corporate governance index model, when the cut point is set to 0.5, the accuracy to anticipate the financial crisis companies is up to 79.2%. Through the evidence shown we know corporate governance is also a main factor, which can also cause the financial crisis.
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