| Summary: | 碩士 === 大同大學 === 事業經營學系(所) === 93 === This study will confine the scope to Taiwan’s electronics industry to eliminate any variations that may be caused by the characteristics of other industries. Financial information disclosed by companies listed in either the TSE or the Gretai Stock Exchange will be used in this study, and the samples are the companies affected by land mine stocks. Samples have also been taken from companies with normal operations as a control group for comparison. The sample period covers 2001, 2002, and 2003 in order to find out the financial attributes of these enterprises before the financial crisis.
The research process is divided into two phases. In phase I, financial and non-financial variables will be selected and the Mann-Whitney U test and multivariate analysis will be used in the selection process. In phase II, principle component analysis and step-wise regression will be used in handling the time-series effect. The auto-regression Durbin-Watson method will be used and the Cochrane-Orcutt method of the transformation of variables will also be adopted. Logistic regression analysis will be conducted afterwards.
The empirical findings described in the following:
1. The two groups of samples of enterprises in crisis and enterprises in good standing indicated that, in the period of three years before the outbreak of crisis, the mean values of the financial and non-financial variables indicated a significant variation. The closer in time to the outbreak of crisis, the wider the variation between enterprises in crisis and enterprises in good standing.
2. The method of MANOVA is applied for finding out the strength of the financial and non-financial ratios. The empirical result indicated that the 10 financial variables of cash flow ratio, continuous profit growth rate, EBT growth rate, revenue growth rate, return on net worth rate, operating income rate, EBT, ROI, total liabilities/total assets, and loan dependency are significantly correlated with the performance of enterprises. The TCRI index is an external indicator for independent and objective risk rating. Therefore, this indicator is also essential in the analysis.
3. Enterprises do not get into crisis overnight. Indeed, crisis is the result of prolonged financial malaise. Financial ratio in itself exhibits certain patterns. Before using the financial and non-financial variables for building the regression model, the autocorrelation of the financial ratios over time must be removed for constructing a reasonable regression model. In this study, a diagnosis has been conducted on the regression model covering each of the three years before the outbreak of crisis. The Durbin-Watson test is applied for testing autocorrelation. Two models were built up. The Logistic early warning model has the overall strength of 94.5% under both the principal components analysis and the partial regression method. The result also showed type I error: enterprises in crisis are misclassified as enterprises in good standing and is at 5.3%.
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