The Dynamic Model Structure of the water resource demands in Tainan

• Main Authors: Yung-Shiuan Wang, 王永賢
• Other Authors: Chin-Ming Tseng
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2006
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/06086773946645437993

碩士 === 長榮大學 === 土地管理與開發研究所 === 94 === In recent years, economic development and improvement of living standards in Taiwan has elevated the demand for water resources and an emphasis of stability in water provision. Southern regions of Taiwan are important locations of agriculture and industrial development, with dense populations and lively economies. Recently, due to rapid overall economic development in Tainan County and City, so that there have been gradual increases in the demand for domestic and industrial water supply. In the near future, although there are no problems for Southern Taiwan in its demand for public water supply, after the Tainan Science Park officially begins its operations, there may be insufficient water supplies by 2009. This study uses system dynamics domestic software STELLA to construct sub-models of demand for water supply, industrial water supply, and agricultural water supply. And then it uses current water supply areas to construct a comprehensive regional water resources demand model framework. According to results of model simulation of the trend of the next ten years, system of Nan-hua, Wushanto reveal a trend of positive growth in population, domestic water demand, and industrial water demand. Paihe, Nan-yu, Ching-mien generally show a trend of negative growth. In agricultural water supply, most areas show a decline from year to year. Finally, this study conducts simulation on the impacts of implementation of the water resources policy for water demand. The two types of water resources policy are: increase recycling of the industrial water supply and save domestic water supply. Simulation results show that if domestic water supply decreases by one third each year, the daily water consumption for each person can decrease from 290 liters to 250 liters. In the industrial water supply sector, if the recycling efficiency of water resources increases from 30% to 65%, it can alleviate the need for industrial water supply. Keywords: system dynamic methods, domestic water supply, industrial water supply, agricultural water supply