A Study on the Financial Crisis of the Listed Electronic Firms in Taiwan- An Application of Variable Choice of Funds Gaps Ratio and VaR

• Main Authors: Ron-Fen Huang, 黃容芬
• Other Authors: Jin-Jou Dai
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2006
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/90183599618766273677

碩士 === 朝陽科技大學 === 財務金融系碩士班 === 94 === In order to avoid financial statement having no prescription, a cover-up sedulously and uncompleted financial information of a distress company, this study will adopt the point of funds gaps to choose the independent variables of forecast model and joint the VaR(Value at Risk, VaR) into the forecast model. In order to avoid the choice-based biases of the study for financial crisis, estimate the default ratio under certain situation, which is similar to calculate the conditional probability, but having the concept of match and the probability close to the real ratio. In the finally, the logit model is used to build the forecast model of financial crisis. The findings of this study are as follows: 1. The influence variables of funds gaps of listed electronic firms are quick ratio, inventory turnover ratio, compound interest of return on total assets, and the ratio of hold stock by directors, which match the property of financial ratio for electronic firms in Taiwan. 2. Regardless of joint the VaR in the model of financial crisis, the quick ratio, inventory turnover ratio and compound interest of return on total assets are all significance, and the P-value is close to zero. This proves that the three variables are the key factors to explain the financial crisis of listed electronic firms. 3. The Adj-R2 of forecast model grows up to 67%, when joint the VaR into the forecast model. This proves that the VaR can promote the forecast ability.