| Summary: | 碩士 === 開南管理學院 === 企業管理學系碩士班 === 94 === The purpose of this research is using system dynamics analysis to forecast third generation mobile communication market. We provide the industry a reference by constructing a dynamic market model to simulate the shift of the future.
The innovation of WLAN technology not only expands the signal cover area, but also releases the small area limitation of LAN. These improvements make users can utilize and access data anywhere. In the other hand, Skype software prevails the VoIP of communication market. Concerning about these two issues, experts predict that WLAN and VoIP will be the 3G communication market enormous threats.
The result f system dynamics analysis shws that GSM mbile marKet will be replace by 3G m bile maret in 2011. The development of WLAN will decline the 3G data revenue. Although VoIP decay the 3G market, the obvious outcome will appear when WLAN cover rate is increased and dual mode mobile IP phone is matured. The research supports the integration of the system dynamics model and let policy decision makers forecast the market trend through the simulate result.
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