| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中興大學 === 土木工程學系所 === 94 === The business operation life cycle of the development industry, starts from land acquisition which determines whether an investment could be profitable. Due to land’s un-moveable and special characteristics, upon land acquisition, sinking cost is usually finalized. Once a developer acquires a piece of land, he has to go through entire construction and sales cycle completely to earn his profit. Therefore, land price becomes the major business operation issue of the development. This paper create prediction model by grey system theory and use Microsoft Excel to build minimum square program and each known slope. To forecast the price of land for given distance. Considering mean and standard deviation, and accuracy between 74.67%~89.00% is achievable, which means the grey theory is a good method for real estate appraisal and meet our requirement.
The research also concludes the impact factors of land price as base for analysis of grey relation. All of the impact factors could easily be obtained by estimate, thereby reducing the affect of meteorology personal equation, which is beneficial to the analysis of grey relation.
Finally, it uses the simulated results of artificial neural network compare to the merits and demerits of the grey theory analysis and considers the ease of future development and extension so as to allow it to be used for real estate appraisal.
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