A STUDY OF USING THE GREY THEORY TO PREDICT EQUIPMENT AVAILABILITY

• Main Authors: Kun-i Yang, 楊坤益
• Other Authors: Li-chih Ying
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2006
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/78410602812597700055

碩士 === 南華大學 === 管理科學研究所 === 94 === 　　The most important thing of Taiwan straits conflict depends upon the controls of the air space, the superiority of our air combat capabilities over Taiwan straits have gradually become inferior strength after 2005, but how to effectively guarantee the capacities of air defense and maintain full serviceability of the equipments will be the primary objective. This study is based on relevant documents of logistics management, and in accordance with characteristics of equipments to form up a predictable availability pattern; and through collecting and analyzing of period of time of past data to be predictable observing values, and then using "Grey Theory Availability Prediction Model" to predict the equipment''s future availability, and prove it to be reference data of warfare capability , and finally utilize "Grey Relation Analysis Model" to conduct a relevant analysis and find out the crucial factors of elements that affect availability, and then form up a specific action to deal with armed forces for consulting and applying. The results show that the "Grey Prediction Model" is satisfactory for short-term availability predicting, a "Dynamic Prediction Model" can be built to obtain further reference data, then select out a most optimal predicting pattern through all of the experiments and then conduct the evaluation again to obtain a reliable result. In the "Grey Relation Analysis Model", it is found that no matter how big or small your fleet are, the main factor for affecting availability is the rate for waiting parts, but the second factor for affecting availability depends on equipment quantity. This result can provide all levels of logistics personnel with precise guidance on promoting and maintaining all kinds of equipment availability, and set up different kinds of measures and actions.