The Relationship between Declaration of Earnings Forecast and Stock Price Variation--An Empirical Study on Listed and OTC Electronic Companies in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Jeff Liao, 廖憶銘
• Other Authors: Tsau-Yi Ho
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2006
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/78544889001458925981

碩士 === 東吳大學 === 企業管理學系 === 94 === Stock price is a reflection of market information. One of the most used information is a declaration of financial results. Investors interpret the financial statements will affect investors’decision to invest and therefore,affect the stock price variation. This research investigated Taiwan stock market whether meet efficient market. Then observe when firms declare first earnings forecast, would this information causes the stock price variation. Finally we used electronic industry groups sample to study when firms announce earnings forecast, would stock price variation affected by group which firms belong to and what does the association between group and firms? This study selected 207 electronic companies which had IPO in Taiwan stock market between 2000 and 2004 that include current earnings forecast, previous earnings forecast and actual earnings with 1528 observations. We Used“Event Study”method and statistical analysis on the data collected,the results show： Taiwan stock market is not a Semi-strong Form Efficient Market. Firms declare good news on earning forecast, their stock returns are higher than the firms declare bad news. Firms forecast positive deviation whose returns are higher than forecast negative deviation. The good firm whose earnings growth is higher than group that has higher returns than the bad firm whose earnings growth is lower than group.