Using Conditional Partial Expected Value towards the Dynamic Estimation of Mean Project Activity Time Under Different Probability Distribution

• Main Authors: Chia-Hsing Wang, 汪家興
• Other Authors: 林逾先
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2006
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/r4dwbs

碩士 === 國立臺北科技大學 === 商業自動化與管理研究所 === 94 === In daily life, there are multitudes of engineering works in project model, in a project schedule often include a lot of activities. Because the project is to use specific resource, manpower, material resources to reach the goal in a most efficient way within limited time so must use the technology of project management to management the activity time in project and make the whole project can be finished as scheduled. Because project management most important work is to control time, so to there are many technological kinds to analysis activity time in project management. Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is to use three time estimates (least possible time, greatest possible time, modal time) to replace Critical Path Method (CPM) for calculate each activity time under Beta distribution. The project is usually filled with uncertainties and influence factors. Consequent PERT suppose that the all activity time in project scheduled must obey Beta distribution make people to query and PERT make estimate of the mean project activity time only limiting when the project has not begun to take action. In this research is based on the PERT and use the “Conditional Partial Expected Value” towards the dynamic estimation of mean project activity time. And under the suppose activity time in project is uniform distribution, triangular distribution, Beta distribution, normal distribution for the specific situation to towards the dynamic estimation of mean project activity time so to obtain the general formula. The formula could adjust to resource and scheduled progress that would be beneficial to project schedule management in future.