Seasonal Grey System Theory Model Research in Taiwan Electric Consumption

• Main Authors: Pai-chi Wang, 王百祺
• Other Authors: 廖敏治
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2007
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/39224510237109513196

碩士 === 正修科技大學 === 經營管理研究所 === 95 === Taiwan power supply is behind the growth of the power consumption so that the power consumption may not be satisfied in the near future. How to predict the power consumption preasely is important to plan the power development in the future. The thesis improves the Grey System Theory Model proposed by Deng (1982) to develop a Dynamic Grey System Theory Model. The new model is used to predict the power consumption of Taiwan based on the data collected by Taiwan Power Company form 1996 to 2005. The performance of the proposed model is evaluated based on the mean absolute percentage error, and we find that the proposed model improves the performance oof prediction for the power consumption of Taiwan over Grey System Theory Mode.