| Summary: | 碩士 === 逢甲大學 === 財稅所 === 95 === The surplus from Taiwan’s charitable lottery has totaled more than 119.8 billion NT dollars since its first issue in January 2002. However, most people doubt whether the level of social welfare can be improved by the distribution of lotto surplus. The Lottery Earnings Surveillance Alliance generally thought the use of Taiwan lottery surplus was unable to show its characteristics of public charity and scoial welfare. Instead, the surplus becomes the money of central and local governments which allow them to facilitate fiscal allocation.
First, we use the panel data model including the data of 1985-2005 to estimate the impact of lottery earnings on the social welfare expenditure. The results show that the issuing of Taiwan lottery induces a significant fungible effect on the local social welfare expenditures.
Second, we construct a panel data model, which includes the 1985-2001 data before the year of issuing lottery, in order to forecast the 2002-2005 net local social welfare expenditure per capita and the share of net local social welfare expenditure in total fiscal expenditure. As a whole, significant fungible effects appear on the first two years of the lotto issuing, especially the Tainan city. However, the degree of fungibility of the local governments become less and less as time passed by under the supervision of central government and private associations.
Finally, because the management mehtods of the local lottery surplus varies across counties, a panel data model, based on the period of 2002-2005, is employed to evaluate the impact of different management methods on the influence of fungibility. If the social welfare expenditure per capita is considered, the different management methods will not affect the original fungibility size significantly. If the budget share of the social welfare expenditure is considered, the result shows that it may increase the fungible effect if the local government adopts the budget method of the revenue and expenditure compound management.
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