Research on Constructing a Prevention Mechanism for Crises of Cross- Strait Military Conflicts

• Main Authors: SHIAO MING-CHI, 蕭明吉
• Other Authors: Cheng, Shyi-kae
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2007
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/33285781059330321085

碩士 === 玄奘大學 === 公共事務管理學系碩士在職專班 === 95 === In view of the old saying, "prevention is better than cure," no matter Communist China will invade Taiwan or not, or whether they are capable of doing so, provided that there is possibility of military conflict across Taiwan Strait, there have to be a permanent Crisis Sensing System and a Crisis Situation Monitoring System, which will be able to give an alarm in a flash to Crisis Management Team based on experience acquired from previous patterns in Communist China's use of force and during crises of cross-strait conflicts. For this reason, through qualitative research and expert interviews, and from various angles of history, military, economics, diplomacy and politics, the writer will conduct an in-depth exploration on the crux of cross-strait conflicts, signs of Communist China's use of force, and possible modes of military operations, providing references to the Crisis Sensing System and Crisis Situation Monitoring System in departments concerned when determining the initiation threshold (timing) of cross-strait military conflict prevention mechanism, and performing simulated training, so that crisis of cross-strait military conflicts can be correctly predicted or discovered in time. Taking the above into consideration, there are four purposes of this study. 1. To take the initiative in constructing a prevention mechanism for crises of cross-strait military conflicts: To deliberate one by one concepts, characteristics and importance of early warning; and to study the ways, prediction theories, procedures and methods of early warning, aiming at building up capabilities for early warning of cross-strait military conflicts through qualitative research. 2. To set up a database of Communist China's invasion patterns in use of armed forces against Taiwan: Based on the revolution of Communist China's armed forces, possible invasion patterns in use of armed forces against Taiwan are categorized through the study of the history of revolution and the background of cross-strait military conflicts, providing references to relevant organizations when designing teaching programs of enemy's situation and movement, organizing seminars, preparing crisis simulation drills, and plotting the worst scenario, aiming at strengthening crisis management training and proposing feasible countermeasures. 3. To set up a database of signs prior to Communist China's use of armed forces against Taiwan: Particular stress is generally laid on military signs while other signs in historical, political, economical, and technological aspects are usually ignored. In consideration of such weakness, database of signs from various aspects prior to the use of force by communist armies are collected based on Communist China's politics, economy, military, morale, technologies, and mobilization act, aiming for providing references to relevant organizations when determining the initiation threshold (timing) of crisis management mechanism. 4. To define the crisis threshold (red line) for cross-strait military conflicts: It is because only when the crisis threshold is clearly defined, crisis prevention strategies can be mapped out one by one in light of various categories and sources of crises.