Would Income Distribution Impact Lottery Sales? An Analysis Based on Agent-Based Simulaton

• Main Authors: Fan,Hui-Fen, 范慧芬
• Other Authors: Chen, Shu-Heng
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2007
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/11900333859141838156

碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 行政管理碩士學程 === 95 === This study addresses the impact of income distribution on lottery sales using an agent-based modeling approach, specifically, the Chen-Chie model (Chen and Chie, 2007). Two kinds of lottery participation function are considered in this thesis. One is more heuristic and does not require agents’ expectations of the odds. In this case, we use the fuzzy inference system to represent agents’ heuristics. The other explicitly takes agents’ expectations of the odds into account, and a formal expected utility maximization approach is taken. In addition to lottery participation, following Chen and Chie (2007), we also consider two additional empirical aspects of lottery plays, namely, conscious selection and state-dependent utilities. The parameters of agents are not fixed; instead, they are autonomous and all behavioral parameters are adaptive via genetic algorithms. While the population genetic algorithms (social learning) are applied, an idea of nearest neighbors learning is used to further distinguish the global social learning from the local social learning. These setups together give us four behavioral models of lottery markets. We then simulate each of these four markets with different income distribution, and then compare their statistic behavior with statistical test to examine the overall effect of income distribution to lottery sales.