| Summary: | 碩士 === 中興大學 === 土木工程學系所 === 95 === Taiwan is with dramatic variations both in spatial and temporal scale,80% rainfall concentration in wet season is June to October. The plentiful rainfall is in June of raining season and August of typhoon season. The rainfall diminution in dry season is November to next May. Thus, efficient water resources management becomes the main concern. The purpose of this thesis is to establish inflow forecast model from 10-day inflow of Shihman Reservoir and to improve the forecast model from hydrologic data deviation, extraordinary 10-day inflow, time lag of Grey forecast, and season factor.
In this thesis research, the hydrologic data deviation is first rejected then the data is processed in logarithm and standardized. The new model with GE(1,1) and seasonal revising is used to analysis the reservoir inflow in each hydrologic year.
The proof of the research is successful during the drought occurred in 2002 to 2003 especially with the normal process. This Thesis is presented as reference to an efficient hydrologic forecast.
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