The Risk Evaluation for the Capital Investment Project of Offshore Oil and Gas Field Development

• Main Authors: Chin-Chuan Yu, 余慶泉
• Other Authors: Shing-Ko Liang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2007
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/12321648361010550174

碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 管理學院碩士在職專班工業工程與管理組 === 95 === Traditional capital investment project is assessed and planned on the market chance, marketing strategies and financial economic analysis. Most of them adopt the calculation of Net Present Value (NPV) or the Internal Rate of Returns (IRR) in financial economic analysis. NPV and IRR come out only single value, it is not the interval concept, so investors can't judge the whole possible risk. This research is an application of the concept of Value at Risk (VaR). It is a case study about the investment in offshore oil and gas field development that utilize the cash flow statement and combine Monte Carlo simulation with confidence level concept to calculate the average NPV. The risk value of the special project (PaR) is the value with probability that NPV which greater than zero. We use the method of stress test, to find out the key risk factors of the investment project. Following the risk management, try to reduce the risk of the investment and make sure the investment can match the goal. The result shows that a average NPV is NT$ 3,582 million and the PaR is -257 million. The probability that NPV greater than zero is 93.85% with 95 % confidence level. Stress test shows that key risk factor are oil gas field reservoir, gas sale price and investment cost. The worst situation, IRR is minus 7.12%.