Research for “Stop And Reverse” Indicator in Taiwan Bonds Market

• Main Authors: cheng-Yuan Chen, 陳政元
• Other Authors: 張傳章
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2007
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/19182631576771989041

碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 財務金融學系碩士在職專班 === 95 === There are various analyzing tools used in the equity and futures markets in which not only the liquidity is excellent but also the structure of the participants are fairly plentiful. Technical analysis is the most applied analytical tool in these markets due to the difficulty of obtaining significant information and being lack of the ability of professional knowledge of the nature of the invested companies. Therefore, technical analysis is the fastest gateway to achieve the need of the investors. The goal of the Technical analysis has placed its reliability on the trading timing where the Stop And Reverse (SAR) method is proved the most effective way on the trading timing for both equity and futures markets. There are various relative publishing articles and papers on the method proved the effectiveness of making exceeding return on investment by using the SAR method as the analytical tool. The participants of the OPNOS trading in the bond market of Taiwan are mostly corporate investors which are not as diversified as the USA counterpart. Technical analysis for the trend of the bond market compare to the stock and futures markets is quite insufficient. In the recent years, in order to enhance the liquidity of the bond trading and improve transparence of the trading information, the OTC has established the fair pricing trading system , instead of negotiating by phone, which is dealt by computer system. The fair pricing trading system successfully activate the trading of OPNOS. Since the market participants remain the same and the contemporary standard bonds are often locked off by the bond holders meaning almost no standard bond circulating in the market for this reason. It was unknown that SAR method would actually work or even make exceeding profit. The purpose of this dissertation is to argue the effectiveness of applying the Stop And Reverse method as the technical tool and also apply the two way trading principle for analyzing investing in the Taiwanese bond market. The result of the argument is that the SAR is not effective on the investment return in the Taiwan bond market.