A Case Study of Mobile Telecommunication Market and Handset Life Cycle in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Liu-Luan Chiang, 江劉鑾
• Other Authors: JuhWen Hwang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2007
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/4ezkcn

碩士 === 國立東華大學 === 高階經營管理碩士在職專班 === 95 === The first generation of telecommunication system AMPS (Advance Mobile Phone Service) had been introduced in Taiwan since 1989. AMPS in Taiwan was recognized for its convenience and personalized service and the general public just cared for the service. Due to the factor, the growth rate of AMPS market had become very significant. During that time, there was only the former DGT (In 1996, it changed to CHT - Chunghwa Telecom) provided the service, so the supply was unable to meet the demand. The over-demand situation created the so-called “Copied Handset” market (one subscription had been copied to different handsets), meaning that the actual sales of handsets was over the demand of the subscriptions. In 1995, the former DGT introduced the second generation of mobile communication – GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications) to Taiwanese telecom market. Since the GSM provided a precise way of encryption so the data of the user can be protected in the SIM card. Because of the factor, the subscription of GSM in Taiwan has grown up to 180,000 in 6 months and the penetration rate of mobile communication market has been brought up from 3.62% to 6.86% in 1997. The subscribers of GSM in Taiwan reached to 1.49 million then. Given the government policy of the privatization and liberalization of telecommunication market, many privatized players has entered this market in December 1997. By way of nimble marketing programs and the variety of selling skills, the business of GSM had boomed. The total subscribers of all these privatized operators were 2.55 million and exceeded CHT's 2.18 million subscribers in 1998. The total subscribers were up to 4.73 million and the penetration rate was also up to 21.56%. In the consecutive 5 years, the market has grown in a leapfrog way and the subscribers of the 2003 end was up to 25.2 million, making the penetration rate reach to 111%(CT2's & PHS's subscription excluded). The mobile subscription in Taiwan has widely outnumbered the fixed line subscription of 13.35 million and the mobile handset sales were over 6 million. This made Taiwan an expert of handset manufacturing country. In 2004, the Taiwan operators started to introduce 3G service to the general public. Asia Pacific Broadband Wireless Communication Inc (APBW) was the merely one who adopted the technology of cdma2000 and introduced the handset without SIM card service. In 2005, those who adopted WCDMA technology as TWM (Taiwan Mobile Co., Ltd.), CHT (Chunghwa Telecom), FET (Far Eastone Telecommunications Co., Ltd.) and Vibo (VIBO Telecom Inc.) has also introduced the 3G service to the market. Since the WCDMA technology deployed the standard format for voice and data, making it the main streaming technology adopted in the world, the subscribers in Taiwan has grown from 2004's 460,000 to 2006's 3.12 million. It's been noted that China would launched 3G service for 2008 Olympic Games holding in its major cities, to provide 3G wireless service to the media and tourists, then the demand for 3G service would be up in a significant way. The price level of 3G handset was estimated to lower to US$ 150 so the demand of the 3G handsets and service worldwide could be booming. Jump-Diffusion Model is utilized in forecasting 1G and 2G handset sales. The actual numbers of 1G and 2G handset sales is also provided for the comparison. Then the model is reused for the forecast of 3G handset sales in the future.