| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中山大學 === 財務管理學系研究所 === 95 === It is the key what determined the future of a company the economic behavior practiced from the commercial credit, and the performance of a customer decides the probability of the bad debt from the account receivable. To avoid the bad running of a business unit from terrible cash flow from account receivable, and lead to financial crisis or failure, I try to dig in the problem of the business to give credit failure. Finally, I hope to run a system of crisis prediction to avoid this kind of problem.
Try to use the KMV Model on the companies which were listed on the stock exchange market belonged to the Printed Circuit Board (PCB) industry from 2004 to 2006. The result of verification ,the Distance-to-Default(DD) average is about 3.4982; and the Expected-Default-Frequency(EDF) probability average locates on 0.0084. In addition , used the size of capitalization and the analysis of financial ratios to evaluate the internal credit line system in a clinical way, and upgrade the risk management of credit, risk judgment measurement to decrease the loss in the meanwhile.
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