Cyclical Fluctuation and Industry Dynamics in Taiwan High-Technology Industries

• Main Authors: Shu-Hung Lin, 林書弘
• Other Authors: Tsai, Diana H. A
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2007
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/rg75fx

碩士 === 國立中山大學 === 經濟學研究所 === 95 === In markets with cyclical fluctuations, firms may have different dynamic decision rules facing upturns and downturns of industry cycles. This paper extends the dynamic factor demand model to consider industry cycles. Because investment behavior could be endogenous uncertainty involved on industry dynamics, the current industry dynamic models with state-of-the-art would not appropriately interpret industry dynamics. In order to solve the uncertain problem, we utilize the idea of transfer probability in Markov switching model to catch the industry cyclical behavior. Explicitly incorporating the Markov regime switching mechanism based on Nelson and Kim (2000), this paper measures the firm’s dynamic adjustments when facing upturns and downturns of industry cycles. The empirical work is based on firm level data of Taiwan high-technology industries. The empirical results show that the expansionary strategy in labor and capital usage may not have positive impacts on output when considering uncertainty that may be casued by business cycles. To have correct prediction in cyclical fluctuation becomes important task for high-technology firms. However, the positive contribution of exogenous technology to output growth is so significant. This proves why every industry tries to impel technology in recent years. The industry dynamic model integrated with cyclical fluctuation and demand uncertainty allows us to examine how sharp changes in financial factors might affect investment behavior, technological nature and adjustment effects for industries in facing demand and investment shocks.