| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 政治學研究所 === 95 === The purpose of this paper is applying event history analysis to finding out the factors which affect international terrorism occurrence in the post cold war era. The observed time is from 1992 to 2002. Using ITERATE data set during this period, this paper builds Cox shared frailty models, which assume that there are differences between countries, and estimates the effects of factors on the hazard rates of international terrorism occurrence. Furthermore, terrorism events are classified into six types and Cox shared frailty models are used to estimate the effects of different factors on them. Besides, the variations of the numbers of international terrorism events over time are considered in this paper.
The result shows that there are three factors affecting international terrorism occurrence, including democratic degrees, middle-east countries, and unemployment rates. These three factors have positive effects on the hazard rates of international terrorism occurrence. Moreover, according to incident types, terrorism events are classified into hostage events, bombing events, armed attack events, hijacking events, assassination events, and threat events, and the factors affecting these six events are different. There are three factors affecting hostage events, including democratic degrees, unemployment rates and ethnic homogeneities. Bombing events are affected by urbanization degrees, national material capabilities and land areas. Armed attack events occur in countries with low urbanization and unstable democracy more probably. National material capabilities have negative effects on hijacking events, but land areas and populations have positive effects on them. Assassination events occur in countries with low GDP growth rates or high unemployment rates more possibly. Threat events are affected by democratic degrees and middle-east countries positively.
Finally, most events occurred during the first three or four years after the end of cold war except for hostage events, and the numbers of events declined afterwards. According to the data, the fact that events occurred mostly during early years in the post cold war era comes from specific terrorist organizations or the political aftermath of cold war, and because the atmosphere of cold war went down, peaceful atmosphere increased, and some terrorist groups negotiated with countries successfully, the numbers declined in the late years.
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