| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣科技大學 === 營建工程系 === 95 === This research develope a novel model, called the Poisson deterioration model, for the deterioration of the components in the hydraulic gates of the Shih-men dam. A real-time Bayesian algorithm, called the particle filter algorithm, is proposed is to estimate the unknown parameters and obtain the real-time failure probability, failure rate, and life-time estimates. The fault-tree model is then employed to estimate the real-time failure probability, failure rate, and life-time of the entire system. In order to verify the proposed model and algorithm, several numerical examples are taken to demonstrate their consistency. Finally, real inspection data from the hydraulic gates in the Shih-Men dam is analyzed to estimate real-time component and system failure probability, failure rate, and life-time.
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