| Summary: | 碩士 === 淡江大學 === 財務金融學系碩士在職專班 === 95 === This paper exams the relationship among economic growth rate and macroeconomic variables using Markov switching model in the U.S., Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. We also divide the monetary policy into expected and unexpected policy for analyzing the different impacts to economic growth rate. The empirical results show the positive relationship between expected monetary policy and economic growth rate in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. However, the relationship does not exist in the U.S. Moreover, the relationship between unexpected monetary policy and economic growth rate is positive in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. The effect of unexpected monetary policy is significant than expected ones. Further, the declare effect of adjusting discount rate by the government is significantly then the real effect. The relationship between economic growth rate and inflation or unemployment rate are negative. In conclusion, the implementation of the Central Bank policy influence on economic growth rate, Taiwan keeps the same with U.S.''s situation, comparatively similar in Japan and South Korea. The monetary policy will affect the other real variables in economic system, and the government should not omit the trade off effect.
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