An Analysis for the prediction of financial distress companies

• Main Authors: Tsui-ping Chang, 張翠娉
• Other Authors: none
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2007
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/99819911349717076693

碩士 === 國立雲林科技大學 === 財務金融系碩士班 === 95 === Recently the companies or groups appeared financial distress from one to another which has caused national of society uneasiness and lost seriously for most of investors. To avoid the event happened again, we need to analyze the original causes and characteristics on financially distressed companies first. This paper apply to 100 samples of company between two separate groups, namely, the group of financially stability companies and the group of financially distressed companies from Taiwan stock mark, incorporate the financial indicator, corporate governance, risk index, and earnings management factors to probe into the original causes and relevant problems of financially distressed companies. We use probit model estimating a predicting model to analyze the impact of said factors above and test the predicting ability of this model. The empirical results show that the ROE, ratio of important shareholder, and the total number of supervisors are statistically significant, indicating a negative relationship with the probability of financial distress happening. The growth rate of net income, TCRI index, the total number of directors, and the discretionary accruals are statistically significant, but indicating a positive relationship with the probability of financial distress happening relevantly. It shows that the financially distressed companies have incentives to manipulate the earnings before the financial distress happening but get opposite effect instead. The result also shows that the percentage of correct forecasting for both groups of sample is 93%, and the percentage of correct forecasting for out-of-sample is 100%.