Long-term simulation of photochemical grid model to evaluate air quality for control strategy and future emission of large sources

• Main Authors: Ming-Kai Liu, 劉銘凱
• Other Authors: Ken-Hui Chang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2007
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/18384635647568899293

碩士 === 國立雲林科技大學 === 環境與安全工程系碩士班 === 95 === Ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM) are two main reasons causing air pollution in Taiwan. The air quality data monitored by Taiwan EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) shows the tendency of O3 keeps rising up. O3 as the representative of photochemical air pollution has become the major PSI (Pollutants Standards Index) for many monitoring sites. Limited by computer capability, short-term events are usually selected to simulate and assess air quality in the past, but the representative of entire air quality is more controversial. In recent years, because of the reinforcement of computer capability, it is become possible for long-term simulation of air quality. Long-term simulation not only solves the representative problems but also decrease the evaluation uncertainty resulted from short-term simulation. It was considered that there was no formal reference evaluating the effectiveness of regulatory policy improving the air quality by long-term simulation. In order to gain more believable simulated results offered to evaluate air quality improvement, this study will aim at the items above to proceeding the long-term simulation and subsequent analysis. The whole year of 2003 was selected to simulate air quality using Models-3/CMAQ associated with the meteorological data of MM5 provided by Taiwan air quality modeling center. The modeling results show that, from 2000 to 2011, if Taiwan emission is under natural growth, the spatial exposure (km2-hour) of ozone event (O3 > 120 ppb) could be worse up to about 98% compared to the base case. However, if emission reduction control strategy is enforced during the same period, it could improve 70% spatial exposure compared to the natural growth case. If future emission of large sources, which need to be permitted by EIA from 2000 to 2023, are all in operation, the spatial exposure (km2-hour) of ozone event (O3 > 120 ppb) could be worse about 0.7 times compared to the base case. The result reveals that the future emission either by nature growth or by large new sources can result to serious air quality problem. Therefore the control strategy of emission reduction will be important for air quality improvement and/or maintainance.