| Summary: | 博士 === 國立中正大學 === 社會福利所 === 96 === In 2003, Taiwan’s TFR had already reached the lowest-low fertility, and it even declined to 1115‰ in 2006, which caused the misgivings of fast aging population in the future. Although Bongaarts and Feeney (1998) think that TFR would be easily underestimated because of the influence of fertility pace, after eliminating timing effects of fertility, the adjusted TFR is still between 1400‰ and 1500‰; thus, the fertility rate of female in Taiwan is still very low. The main influences of low fertility rate are aging population structure, insufficient labor force, and heavier burden for the young population. Tu and Chen (1988) had proposed the use of fertility adjustment and international migration to manage population problem 20 years ago. The purpose of enhancing fertility policy is to urge family to develop its function, thus the rise of fertility rate is the success of policy implementation. Since the content of policy of enhancing fertility is abundant, thus great amount of economic expenditures is needed; in the meanwhile, other countries verify that it is quite difficult for fertility rate to get back to and be above population replacement level, so United Nations (2000) stood for replacement migration to solve the problems of young population’s burden and shortage of labor force. Recently, the essential goal of Taiwan’s population policy has also changed from the previous “family planning” to “maintenance of reasonable population growth”. “White paper for population policy” that was planned in 2006 even considered “fertility” and “migration” as important contents. However, none of the studies has connected “fertility” and “migration” together to discuss the composition and development of population in the future; this thesis hopes to calculate how many economical labor force is needed to be recommended additionally with regard to the assumptions of fertility and marriage migration through looking after the effects of both fertility adjustment and population migration under the prerequisite of maintaining Taiwan population’s potential support ratio (PSR) as 3.
This thesis sets up four kinds of assumptions according to the differences of fertility and marriage migration, which are maintaining the status quo of TFR (control group), TFR increases from current 1115‰ to 1600‰ within 10 years (influence of fertility adjustment policy), considering marriage migration quantity and fertility difference (influence of marriage migration), and giving consideration to the effects of both fertility adjustment policy and population migration respectively. The result finds out the total population in the future shows the phenomenon of increase first and decrease after, the reduction of population scope is a foregone conclusion. If it is possible to rise the fertility level, the ratio of aged population could be reduced to less than 30% by 2050; while the effect of marriage migration towards lowering aging population is relatively insignificant. If observing from the PSR trend, the burdens of work population in each kind of assumptions are heavy, the ratio of people with moderate to advanced age (45- 64 years old) among the work population also increases year by year, which predicting the coming of heavier burden. In order to maintain PSR at the level of 3, the later the time, the required population would be more and more, estimating that it is necessary to introduce labor force continuously so as to fill in the shortage of work population since 2030. Although the immigration of large number of population would not cause third demographic transition, the trend of population change would develop towards this transition under the prerequisite of continuously low fertility rate and depending on international migration to solve the burden of work population. Finally, according to the estimation from United Nations (2000), numerous countries with low fertility rates will be dependent on immigrating a large number of labor power to develop for the countries in the future, predicting that the goal of population policy in the future would be changed from the present “maintenance of reasonable population growth” to “attracting the labor force from other countries”.
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