A Study on the Influence Regarding the Departure Time of Highway Bus to the Uncertainty of In-Vehicle Time

• Main Authors: Shih-hsia Wang, 王世俠
• Other Authors: Chun-Zin Yang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2008
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/73194979677663427038

碩士 === 逢甲大學 === 交通工程與管理所 === 96 === Nowadays, business strategy of highway passenger transportation industry mostly focuses on price competitions, bus equipment and station facility improvement. As to the travel time passengers spend on bus and arrival time at destinations, accurate information is not provided for tourists. Following social changes and progress, tourists start pay attention to the time spent for transportation; by the way, after high speed railway joins transportation market, tourists not only consider price and service quality when they select national highway passenger carriers, but they also take into consideration concerning departure time and whether the arrival time is as expected to reach a destination. Thus, for highway passenger transportation business owners, travel time will also become an important service item in the future. With the roundtrip route between Taipei and Taichung Chao Ma offered by a highway passenger transportation company as the research subject, the purpose of this study is to investigate operation of the route at bus stations. Firstly, method of questionnaire survey is used to obtain information about customers’ experiences and opinions of taking the buses. Secondly, accelerated failure time model is applied to construct models and examine factors which may affect anticipated and actual travel time, and explore the factors those cause difference between actual and anticipated travel time, and the magnitudes of these effects. The result of a suitable actual travel time model is taken to calculate probabilities regarding window of travel time so as to provide tourists accurate information for them to make good use of time. According to the results of studied models, the perceived in-vehicle time is affected by departure time for current trip, departure/arrival stations, and the way of get information. The actual in-vehicle time is changed by departure time for current trip, departure/arrival stations, and the number of traffic accidents and traffic incidences. The difference between perceived and actual in-vehicle time is influenced by departure/arrival stations and the way of get information. Later, further application of actual in-vehicle time models reveals whether arriving in certain time window is reliable. The outcomes include the probabilities of bus arriving in passengers’ acceptable time window and the probabilities of bus arriving destination too early or too late. Then, passengers can pre-plan their trips, thus use their time more flexibly. Keywords: accelerated failure time model, departure time, in-vehicle time