Underwriting Cycles in Property-Liability Insurance of Taiwan： An Empirical Analysis of Industry and By-Line Data

• Main Authors: Yin-Yin Chen, 陳盈盈
• Other Authors: Steve Ho
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2008
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/34548093865984628943

碩士 === 逢甲大學 === 財稅所 === 96 === This paper examines the presence and causes of the underwriting cycle in property liability insurance of Taiwan that discusses this survey with using vector error correction model by 1970 to 2006 industry data and using Panel vector autoregression model by 1995 to 2006 line data and can generalize five hypotheses that include the extrapolation hypothesis, the rational expectations/ institutional intervention hypothesis, the fluctuation-in-interest rate hypothesis, the capacity constraint hypothesis , the change-in-expectations hypothesis from the cause of the underwriting cycle’s reasons. The significant factors that determine the overall premium are the rational expectations/ institutional intervention hypothesis by industry and line data in property liability insurance of Taiwan. The extrapolation hypothesis, the fluctuation-in-interest rate hypothesis and the capacity constraint hypothesis are unrelated to the business cycle of property liability insurance by industry and line in Taiwan.