| Summary: | 碩士 === 高雄醫學大學 === 醫務管理學研究所碩士在職專班 === 96 === Aims
The purposes of this study were: 1) To forecast anesthesiologist manpower demand of Taiwan in the future by using data before global budget. 2) To evaluate the influence of global budget on the growth of anesthesiologists, in patient department operations, and out patient department operations and 3)To predict anesthesiologist manpower demand of a medical center in southern Taiwan by using data after global budget.
Methods
The main data were obtained from National Health Administration and a medical center in southern Taiwan from 1999~2007. Logistic Regression (LR), Grey Model Theory (GT), Linear trend of Exponential Smoothing (ESL) and Exponential trend of Exponential Smoothing (ESE) of Time-Series Analysis were used to forecast and compared for purposes 1 and 3. For purpose 2, Confidence Interval Test(C I test) was selected as a suitable method of confirming the influence of global budget.
Results
For purposes 1 and 3, (ESL) and (ESE) of Time-Series Analysis appeared to be better than (LR) and (GT). For purpose 2, Confidence Interval Test showed that global budget made hospital administrators significantly increase the portion of in patient department operation numbers to make the ends meet. Comparing the growth rate of anesthesiologists with other specialties, Confidence Interval Test did not showed any statistical significance.
Conclusion
Under the assumptions of stable political environment, healthcare policies and medical technology, (ESL) and (ESE) of Time-Series Analysis seemed to be better in forecasting anesthesiologist manpower in the near future than (LR) and (GT) both in Taiwan and in a medical center in southern Taiwan. According to the results, it is advisable to apply Time-Series Analysis to forecast manpower in other medical specialties.
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