Trend and Relation Analysis of Electricity Consumption and CO2 Emission

• Main Authors: Pei-ling Lu, 呂佩玲
• Other Authors: Sue-Jane Lin
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2008
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/12400570000156463636

碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 環境工程學系碩博士班 === 96 === The decomposition analysis and grey relational analysis were applied in this study to identify the major factors affecting the electricity consumption and CO2 emission in Taiwan. In addition, the OECD and Tapio decoupling index were used to explore the relationships among the electricity consumption, CO2 emission and economic development. Furthermore, major factors affecting the CO2 emission of electricity consumption and were conducted by the decomposition analysis and results were compared among Japan, Korea, UK, Germany and the Netherlands. Results of this study have shown that the electricity consumption, CO2 emission and economic growth experienced increasing growth rates. The CO2 emission of electricity consumption has dramatically increased for the past of 25 years. In 2006, the CO2 emission from the electricity consumption accounted for 57.15% of total CO2 emission. Results from decomposition analysis indicated that GDP per person and population were the major factors for emission increase. The factor of emission coefficient had a decreasing effect before 1986 and then it demontrated an increasing effect because the fuel structure shifted to high-carbon fossil fuel after 1986. Furthermore, the influence of electricity intensity was improved in recent years even though it had an increasing effect over the period. Results of grey relational analysis showed that the electricity consumption had the greatest effect affecting CO2 emission, followed by GDP and population. The factors affecting electricity consumption were GDP, population and electricity price. Results of electricity consumption and GDP decoupling indicator analysis indicated that the OECD decoupling index had a coupling effect whereas the expansive coupling and expansive negative decoupling were observed by Tapio decoupling index. In addition, CO2 emission and GDP decoupling index analysis showed that the OECD decoupling index displayed relative decoupling before 1986 and non-decoupling after 1986. As for Tapio decoupling index, it revealed weak decoupling before 1986 and expansive negative decoupling after 1986. Furthermore, the relationship between CO2 emission and electricity consumption indicated that the OECD decoupling index showed relative decoupling effect in the 1990’s and then it experienced coupling effect in the recent years. Similarly, the Tapio decoupling index was observed to be weak decoupling and expansive negative decoupling, which implied a trend of deterioration. The electricity consumption, CO2 emission and economic growth of Japan, Korea, UK, Germany, the Netherlands, and Taiwan were further compared. It can be found that the electricity consumption and CO2 emission in Japan were much higher than the other countries over the period. Regarding the requirement of electricity and CO2 emission in the South Korea and Taiwan, they both increased substantially. The CO2 emission in UK, Germany and Netherlands had a negative growth, which implied that the CO2 emission in these countries had improved in the recent years. Decomposition analysis among all countries suggested that GDP per person and population were two major factors for the increase of CO2. Besides, CO2 emission coefficient had a decreasing effect in each country. Electricity intensity was an increasing factor, except for UK.