Application of Investment Decision Analysis to the Next-Generation Type Selection of TFT-LCD

• Main Authors: Fu-Yuan Wen, 溫富源
• Other Authors: Rong-Kwei Li
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2007
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/35407262849903243517

碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 管理學院碩士在職專班工業工程與管理組 === 96 === Enterprises traditionally use different methods and processes for evaluating major investments, and such methods and processes depend on confidentiality, decision-maker style and organizational culture; since decision makers usually have doubts regarding highly uncertain forecasting results, most decisions are made based on decision-maker experience and instinct. Therefore, systematic methods and tools for improving such decision-making problem become extremely important. This study takes decision-making regarding major investments in the TFT-LCD industry as an example. The decision-making processes and tools developed by the Strategic Decision Group (SDG) are used as the six major elements for decision-making quality for a decision facilitator. Problems in current decision-making processes are used, based on communication process, by a decision board and project team for analyzing investment decisions using a decision-making analytical model comprising a dialog decision process and decision analysis process. A strategy table is used to generate a feasible project and influence diagram to identify uncertain variables that may affect the decision-making goals. Then, using analysis software, sensitivity analysis is applied to identify key uncertain variables. These variables are then used in a decision tree to calculate the expected values of each project .Via a cumulative probability plot, the risk zone is then derived, and regular and graphic data are used for further analysis. Analytical results demonstrated that systematic and logical group decisions can alter decision bias due to a lack of integrated thinking and a strong dependence on experience and intuition. Furthermore, can improve decision-making quality and provide reference data for decision makers. Finally, a decision-maker can select optimal projects that create opportunities for sustaining business operations. Therefore, it is a very feasible technique for decision-making analysis used by individuals and enterprises.