| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 科技管理研究所 === 96 === Rapid technology changes affect societies and economies throughout the world. More and more developed countries try to forecast technology changes using different types of foresight methods. One of them is the Delphi method which is now used in countries including Japan, England, Germany, France, Korea, and China to do foresight research and adjust technology policies. Nanomaterials are the basis of technological advancements in the 21st century. They affect the future development of many other high technology industries such as semiconductor, electro-optics and information industries, in which Taiwan has the highest competitive advantage. Due to the lack of foresight research of nanomaterials in Taiwan, foresight issues of nanomaterials in other countries and suggestions from local experts are collected as inputs to the foresight research conducted using the Delphi Method. The results suggest that nanopowder manufacture technology and nano-composite materials technology are more mature now and will be in late stage development by 2007~2010. Others will be in mature development by 2010~2015, but it will take more time to be of practical use in the market place. The experts also suggest that applied manufacture technology of macromolecule optical thin film will be the industry with the most potential for Taiwan in 2020, and that the biggest challenge of nanometerial in Taiwan may be the manufacture technology and economies of scale.
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