Base on STEEP analysis to discuess the qualitative research of foresight program

• Main Authors: Yi-wan Lee, 李易玩
• Other Authors: none
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2008
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/sbaq9w

碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 企業管理研究所 === 96 === When R&D and innovation of knowledge became the core of economic growth, most of the governments energetically look for the reasonable resource planning and the priority of core technology development to make sure the national competitive advantage. Foresight study which with profound background of technology, economy and society has become an important issue for the whole world when countries face a high degree of complexity and uncertainty in modernistic science and technology, and face an intense pressure from the international competition. Therefore, in recent years many countries use foresight results as a foundation for research, development, innovation, and resource distribution. So far, in Taiwan, foresight program has not been completed, so that is compared poorly with other countries. Based on foresight results of Japan, Korea, Germany, India, and China, the similarities and difference among the foresight programs of every countries are studied and the results are induced by STEEP analysis into seven categories as focus fields and possible issues when setting up Taiwan foresight program in future. The seven categories are which as follows: A.Trends: a.Currently, the trend of foresight is not only focused on development of science and technology but also on the society, economy, energy and environment. b.Foresight study must focuses on the integrated technologies of cross-fields and cross-subjects. B.Methods: c.Foresight research methods have been changed from the traditional large-scale Delphi survey to the more flexible adjusted methods according to research purposes. d.The evaluation and perspective of the possible future are added to the Delphi survey. e.The foresight vision must be executable. Therefore, the stage, necessary basic conditions, efficient allocation of resources, and the priorities of development for reach the required goal must be set up. f.Setting up the action performance evaluation at every stages, and examine, feedback, and adjust the executive result. C.Team work: Foresight research team should be assembled from the experts in different areas and the public. D.Organization: g.Foresight program has not been executed completely yet in Taiwan. Therefore, there are not enough experienced experts to promote the foresight plan. The experienced foreign scholars and experts can be introduced to achieve the efficiency of learning evolution of the foresight of Taiwan. h.To establish the major foresight integrated machinery to avoid the inconsistency of policies. E.Budget: The foresight field of technology is still the most important issue. Government should increase the budget of research and development to ensure national’s competition. F.Government: i.Foresight activities are usually initiated by the government and are completed by many authoritative experts in relating fields. j.The degree of government pay attention on foresight activities has positive relationship with the foresight study results, decision-making of policies and the investment of R & D budget. G.Conditions of country: The foresight activities’ program must be drawn up by depending on the country’s conditions