| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 金融營運所 === 96 === This article examines the optimal default threshold on public corporation by using the Merton (1974) model. Under selecting different debt variables, what influence will change in prediction power. And this article adjusted the firm’s asset value, which is one of the variables in the Merton model, to observe the model suitable in Taiwan public corporations. In this article, the short-term variables has been chosen as current liabilities, short-term borrowings and accounts payable and notes payable; and the long-term variables has been chosen as long-term liabilities, long-term borrowings and corporate bonds. The research shows that, calculation of the default threshold by using the current liabilities and the long-term liabilities was inferior to the KMV model in each year, but the prediction power was superior to KMV model in each year. This article also finds that, the optimal default threshold was different in each year. By comparing with each year, the variable’s composition of short-term borrowings and long-term liabilities was better than others. If want to make the maximum prediction power of each year, it should be using the different composition of variables and default threshold. And then, observation of the relationship between the optimal composition of variables and total debt, it finds that, the ratio close to 40% in each year, except for 2004.
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