| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 運籌管理所 === 96 === According to the analysis report by Goldman Sachs in 2003, Brazil, Russia, India and China (abbreviated as BRICs) are expected to exceed the GDP of G6 in 2050. Since then, the developing trends of BRICs attract the attention of the world. Because steel is the essential component of manufacturing, its price could significantly affect the economies all over the world.
Hence, the goal of this study is to investigate the correlation between the economic indicators of BRICs and global steel price index. We have selected the important economic indexes such as import amount, export amount, exchange rate, and GDP for further analysis. This study first conducted unit-root test and established the error correction model for corresponding time series data. Then we applied response function and variance decomposition to study the change influence of economic parameters on the steel price. Finally, the Granger causality test is adopted to understand the relationship between the economic variables of different countries and steel price. Findings prove that there exists some kind of correlations between economic development of BRICs and global steel price. For example, the economic indexes of Brazil are affected by the steel price. Meanwhile the import amount shows significant response to the steel price. In Russia, it shows that the import amount and steel price affect each other. The GDP affects the steel price in single way. The export amount and GDP have significant response to the steel price. In India, the export amount and steel price affect each other. The steel price affects the exchange rate in single way and the GDP affects the steel price in single way. The exchange rate and GDP have significant response to the steel price. In China, it shows that the import amount and steel price affect each other. At the same time, the steel price affects the GDP and exchange rate in single way. Additionally, the exchange rate and import amount have significant response to the steel price. According to our results, steel price could be consistently affected by the development of BRICs if those countries continue their prosperity.
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